• Question: how long will it take until the icecaps have fully melted because of global warming?

    Asked by wozjaztim to Andrew, Emma, Marianne on 14 Jun 2010 in Categories: .
    • Photo: Andrew Maynard

      Andrew Maynard answered on 12 Jun 2010:

      Hi wozjaztim,

      I don’t know is the simple answer. I’m not sure that it is certain (or even likely) that the ice caps will fully melt under current global warming predictions, but this isn’t my area of expertise, so I am left having to trust colleagues who have a better grasp of the science – and how far it can be pushed in making predictions.

      One of the best sources of information on the possible impacts of global warming is still the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC (here’s their website: http://www.ipcc.ch/ ). The website doesn’t seem to have much clear information on how fast the ice caps are shrinking as far as I can tell – although because climate change science and especially predicting future changes is so complex, this isn’t too surprising. However, there is some information on how much melting glaciers and ice caps have led to an increase in sea levels in the past (available here: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-4-1.html ). The estimate is that between 1993 and 2003, sea levels around the world rose by little over 1 cm due to melting ice. That doesn’t sound a lot. But if you think that the rate at which glaciers and the ice caps are melting seems to be increasing, the impact could be significant over the next 40 years or so.

    • Photo: anon

      anon answered on 14 Jun 2010:

      I don’t know. I think it’s quite difficult to know who has the answer to this question right. If I were you and I really wanted answers to this question I would look for the top-ranked world institutions for climate research/ environmental science and see what estimates they give. I bet you’ll get a wide-spread of answers. There’s nothing exact about science let alone the science of prediction.

      The other thing to bear in mind is what the person predicting has to gain from the prediction they offer. For instance if I was selling a ‘new improved floating home’ and predicted the big melt for next month i’d probably be less trust-worthy than somebody who was going to lose their research funding (from new improved floating homes)because they were sticking to their guns about the fact they couldn’t be sure but they thought it unlikely for at least another 200 years…

      Extreme example but politics and business can’t help mingling with science and not always positively. Look at all the research tobacco firms did to prove smoking safe (what a crock!).

    • Photo: anon

      anon answered on 14 Jun 2010:

      Hi wozjaztim. Very current and interesting question!! According to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (which is the main body that sponsors research into climate change and publishes a report every now again and everyone reads then debates) they predict from current research that the North polar sea ice will disappear almost entirely by the latter part of the 21st Century. The South Pole (Antarctica) which is the main ice covered landmass on the earth (90% of the world’s ice is here) contains much thicker ice and is much colder and some researchers are unsure if this would melt as quickly as the north pole. However, if we all play our role in reducing global warming, we may be able to slow down this melting process:).

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